On Probation
Probation reoffending rates keep falling
MoJ official statistics for 2014 (published October 2016) show reoffending rates of those on probation continue to fall.
9th November 2016
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MoJ official statistics for 2014 (published October 2016) show reoffending rates of those on probation continue to fall.
The Justice Data Lab has been running for over three years now, what can we learn from it about what works in reducing reoffending?
Latest (July 2016) official MoJ reoffending statistics show drop in reoffending rates for those supervised by probation service.
I do hope that more voluntary sector organisations will now feel confident enough in the JDL’s methodology to use what is an excellent opportunity to test the effectiveness of their work at no cost.
However, if the offender population in Peterborough is typical of local prisons, these results are promising although they do not reach the 10% target figure which would release the full PbR payment (the number of reconviction events would need to be 148 per 100 offenders rather than the current 155).
This consistent upward (with the exception of juveniles released from custody) trend is worrying and many commentators will feel it reflects the substantial cuts in probation resources over recently years. Paradoxically, new private probation providers may be pleased to see the rates rise as these are likely to form the baseline for their payment by results targets.
The overall trend is up Although overall levels of crime are down, re-offending rates have proved more intransigent. The latest data – which covers the year
I can foresee a situation in the near future where the MoJ links its own funding to participation in the Justice Data Lab and puts pressure on other funders to do the same.
These are outstanding outcomes and demonstrate the importance of a recovery-oriented treatment approach as a long term solution to tackling drug-related crime; interestingly, reconviction rates for RAPt graduates go down further in the second year post-release. Unfortunately, less than 2% of the prison population who currently need this sort of intensive intervention is receiving it. It remains to be seen if Michael Gove, the new Justice Secretary, can improve on that figure.
It will be fascinating to see if the new Community Rehabilitation Companies can reduce the reoffending rates of short term prisoners now that they have the first opportunity to provide supervision to this group.
There is a clear evidence base to show that good relationships between offenders and their supervisors are important for the identification of needs, ongoing engagement with their sentence, and ultimately for rehabilitation. The research shows that successful supervision requires
The overall proven re-offending rate is 26.0%, the lowest level in over 10 years. This represents a small drop of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 2.9 percentage points since 2002. Since 2002, the overall proven re-offending rate for adult and juvenile offenders has remained fairly stable, fluctuating between around 26% and 29%.
