The remand population

The 30 June 2024 remand population figure of 17,070 is 10% higher than in June 2023 and is the highest June figure in at least the last fifty years (effectively a ‘record high’). The untried prison population rose by 8% (to 11,027) when compared to the end of June 2023 whilst the convicted unsentenced population rose by 13% (to 6,043) over the same period.

Most of those in custody on remand were being held for either violence against the person (44% of the untried population and 31% of the convicted unsentenced population); or drug offences (12% of the untried population and 18% of the convicted unsentenced population). The introduction of new domestic abuse legislation active from June 2022 appears to be a contributing factor to a substantial increase in the number of prisoners associated with a violence against the person offence (51% increase in the untried population, 71% increase in the convicted unsentenced population in the last 12 months).

While white prisoners make up 73% of the sentenced population, they make up only 66% of the remand population. All other reported ethnic groups have the same, or greater, proportional representation in the remand population than they do in the sentenced population.

The sentenced population

The sentenced population was 70,245 which is a 1% increase from the same point 12 months earlier. Among recorded sentence lengths, the largest percentage increase, 10%, was seen for those serving an Extended Determinate Sentence (see below). Meanwhile decreases were seen in the populations serving shorter sentences of less than or equal to 6 months (down 24%), greater than 6 months to less than 12 months (down 21%) and 12 months to less than 2 years (down 7%). I think this is predominantly because it is people serving these shorter sentences who have been released early under the prison capacity emergency measures under which more than 10,000 people have already been released in advance of their original date.

Recalls

Along with the remand population, the recall population is a key reason for our prison capacity problems. 

The population recalled to custody (12,199 prisoners) has increased by 3% relative to the total a year earlier. The increasing recall population is likely driven by a combination of factors such as a longer-term increase in the average length of determinate sentences and an increase in the number of people serving indeterminate sentences or sentences with an extended licence.

Interestingly, the recall prison population fell in April 2024 and May 2024. This is likely to be linked to the impact of the Suitability for Fixed Term Recall Order 2024 which came into effect in early April 2024 which reduced the amount of time that some recalled prisoners would spend in custody on recall.

Adjudications

Another key indicator of the state of our prisons is the ever-increasing number of adjudications taking place with more and more punishments days also adding to the number of people inside.

In the year to 31 March, there was a 25% increase in the number of proven adjudications (to 37,794) from the same quarter in 2023. This in turn contributed to a 107% rise in the number of punishments (to 108,560).

There were increases in the number of proven adjudications across all major adjudication offence types. The largest percentage rise was for ‘wilful damage’, which rose by 52% (to 4,525). The number of offences of ‘unauthorised transactions’ rose by 26% (to 11,836) while ‘disobedience or disrespect’ offence increased by 19% (to 11,673). Together, these two offences account for 62% of the total and along with ‘violence’ (14% of the total), make up the three biggest offence groups for proven adjudications.

The number of proven adjudications for ‘violence’ in the latest quarter increased by 21% (to 5,234) compared to the same period in 2023. This is comparable to pre-pandemic levels (there were on average 5,241 proven adjudications for ‘violence’ per quarter in 2019).

Additional days were awarded as punishment on 1,479 occasions between January and March 2024. A total of 24,454 days were awarded in the latest quarter – this has increased by 74% compared with the same quarter in 2023 (14,082 days between January and March 2023).

Probation

The probation caseload is calculated as a snapshot of all supervision by the Probation Service which was active on the last day of each reporting period. As at 31 March 2024, there were 239,015 offenders supervised by the Probation Service in England and Wales (see table reproduced below), which has remained broadly unchanged over the past year (a decrease of 0.2% compared to 31 March 2023 and a 0.1% increase compared to 31 December 2023).