A crisis of confidence
A new (15 September 2026) report from the Common Ground Justice Project found that nearly two-thirds of Britons feel likely to be a victim of crime in the next year amid a crisis of confidence in the criminal justice system. Held to Account is the Common Ground Justice Project’s most in-depth study yet of the loss of confidence in the criminal justice system and what the public actually want from reform to rebuild trust. Its headline findings are:
A majority (53%) of women under-35 feel likely to suffer a violent or sexual crime in the next year
Fewer than one in five (18%) of all voters think offenders usually face real consequences
The public don’t rate the justice system as doing a good job on any of its core functions
Voters are less divided on criminal justice than the debate suggests – they want a balance of punishment and rehabilitation and are most united by the principle of people taking responsibility for the harm they’ve caused.
The Common Ground Justice Project
The Common Ground Justice Project is a great example of “Ronseal” naming – it does what it says on the tin. The project is an independent non-profit engaging the public in a new conversation about criminal justice – using those insights to drive reforms rooted in the common ground. Given the increased politicisation of the criminal justice debate over the last thirty years, it is heartening to see an organisation looking to stimulate cross-party solutions.
The Project, which is hosted by the Centre for Justice Innovation, declares that it is strictly non-partisan and retains full independence over our research and work. It is funded by philanthropists and charitable trusts and foundations and receive nothing from government sources.
The report
The report is based on three months of public engagement research conducted between June and August 2026, including a national survey, a conjoint policy experiment, in-depth AI-moderated 1-to-1 interviews, and five focus groups held across the UK.
The national survey was commissioned and funded by the Common Ground Justice Project and undertaken by Focaldata, which surveyed 1,493 UK adults aged 18+ between 5–8 June 2026. Data are weighted by age, gender, education, region and recalled 2024 general election vote. Focaldata also conducted the AI-moderated interviews and the conjoint experiment. Full data tables for the national survey will be available on Focaldata’s website.
The focus groups were carried out independently by the Common Ground Justice Project, including a group of people with lived experience of prolific offending convened in partnership with the charity Revolving Doors.
Crime without consequence
The extent of the lack of public confidence in our CJS comes through strongly in the findings:
Fewer than one in five voters (18%) believe people who commit crimes usually face real consequences. “Nothing happens” was a recurring refrain across the focus groups and interviews. Perceived lawlessness and unfairness in criminal justice appears to be contributing to a wider sense of national decline and erosion of trust in politics.
Nearly two in three Britons (63%) expect to be a victim of crime within the next year and one in three expects a violent or sexual crime. Fear of violence is concentrated among the young: over half of women under 35 (53%) expect to suffer a violent or sexual crime this year, as well as 39% of men under 35.
These figures are roughly four times the actual rates of victimhood reported by the most recent Crime Survey for England and Wales, albeit this survey may underestimate actual victimhood on some crimes.
There is no function of the justice system a majority rates as doing a good job – just 22% say it does a good job of reducing crime, and only 38% of protecting the public. Of keyinstitutions, only the police narrowly retain majority confidence (51%) – with prisons (41%), probation (38%) and youth justice (33%) lowest.
Perceived leniency is only part of the reason for low confidence – voters point equally to underfunding, ineffective delivery and unfairness of treatment. Low confidence i prisons, probation and youth justice is mainly attributed to a failure to cut reoffending and lack of resources.
Perceived unfairness is another key driver of mistrust, arising around questions of police treatment (66% believe policing is unequal by ethnicity, split evenly on who benefits), and inconsistency in sentencing.
Broken promises and the cycle of crisis-response are seen as a system failing on its own terms and letting down victims, with every failure deepening the crisis of trust.
Almost two in three Britons (62%) say the criminal justice system needs major changes – a demand spanning every party – with broad support for balancing punishment with rehabilitation and prevention.
Keeping the public safe is clearly the top priority (87%), with youth services first in line for new spending. The public back bold but balanced change: a system that punishes but also treats and prevents crime.
Accountability for crime
The report explores what members of the public mean by the concept that people should be accountable for the crimes they commit.
Punishment is where many voters start, but only around one in ten lean towards the view that a served sentence delivers accountability on its own.
Across five forms of accountability tested – the ‘5 Rs’ of repercussions, responsibility, repair, reform and reintegration – every one is rated important by at least 88%. The demand is ‘punishment plus’, not punishment alone.
The public see accountability as containing three key steps:
- owning the harm,
- paying for the harm, and
- changing behaviour.
The report says that this is common ground that spans divides, and points the way towards justice reforms that will command widespread confidence.
Conclusions and Recommendations
This report concludes that rebuilding trust demands accountability that cuts both ways: for people who commit crime to be held to account for their actions, and a justice system that’s held to account for honest and effective delivery. The research suggests the public is less divided than political debate often implies – and political point-scoring on crime risks obscuring the common ground that does exist.
The report makes seven recommendations:
- Ensure consequences and public safety are the foundation – reassurance here is what creates permission for bold action on rehabilitation and prevention.
- Focus on accountability and responsibility to reach across divides
– responsibility is the clearest common ground, while punishment is a popular but more divisive frame. Policies which recognise this will win broad support. - Restore visible consequences for prolific and low-level crime
– everyday crime that visibly goes unaddressed is driving the confidence crisis and needs urgent action. - Improve communication and honesty with victims and the public – say what sentences mean, follow through, and tell victims what happened in their case.
- Strengthen and amplify community justice – make non-custodial sentences more robust, more visible and clearly evidenced; scepticism is mostly about the system’s capacity to deliver, not leniency.
- Make recovery from addiction central to tackling prolific offending – getting the balance of consequence and high-quality treatment right for this group is where the public’s demand for ‘punishment plus’ can work in practice.
- Develop a cross-party 10-year plan for justice – politicians should respond to publicfrustration by working together across parties on a long-term approach to fixing thecriminal justice system: a plan built on pragmatic ‘common ground’ solutions.
Thanks to Fabian Gieske for kind permission to use the header image in this post which was previously published on Unsplash
