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12 things TOM2 taught me about TR
On 7 February, the MoJ issued an updated version of the Target Operating Model (TOM) for the new probation system. TOM2 is 74 pages long and gives a very detailed description of the current MoJ vision of how reducing reoffending will work from 2015 onwards.
The key words emphasised in the introduction are: Quality; Efficiency; Flexibility; Public Protection; Partnership and Standards.

Do we need a national police service?
The report asks how we reconcile the need for police services to be locally accountable while facing up to the fact that the current structure of 43 separate forces in England and Wales is no longer cost effective, nor equipped to meet the challenges of organised and cross-border crime.
This is a challenge which also faces the modern probation service.

Who is bidding for your probation area?
The MoJ announced the names of the 30 organisations who passed the requirements of the PQQ stage of the Transforming Rehabilitation competition for new probation contracts just before Christmas (19 December 2013). It then asked these 30 bidders to confirm which of the 21 Contract Package Areas they wished to bid for by 22nd January this year.

Justice Committee on payment by results
There was also concern that there would be insufficient investment in TR to enable providers to reduce reoffending – particularly with the extension of probation to short term prisoners. Ideally, the payment mechanism should incentivise providers to take risks and develop new approaches to reducing reoffending. If these approaches are successful, society (through less crime), the taxpayer (less demand on services) and the new providers (PbR bonus payments) all benefit.

A celebration of Probation Achievement
At its annual conference last week (23-24 January 2014), the Probation Chiefs Association launched a publication to celebrate its past achievements and to capture key aspects of its 107 years of history before the radical changes of the government’s Transforming Rehabilitation agenda which will see most of the probation service’s work outsourced with new providers delivering services from April 2015.

How many people will be in prison in 2019?
However, one key component which seems to be excluded from these calculations is the likely impact of the Transforming Rehabilitation reforms. Many expert witnesses who contributed to the recent House of Commons Justice Select Committee report expressed their concerns that TR would increase prison numbers through two main causes:
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