Criminal justice trends
Yesterday’s (15 August 2024) official quarterly criminal justice statistics (which cover the period up to 31 March this year) make for worrying reading. They show significant pressure at every point in the criminal justice system. Key trends include:
- The number of people formally dealt with by the CJS up 6% on the previous year
- Prosecutions and convictions up 8% and 7% respectively
- There was a one percentage point increase in the proportion of defendants remanded in custody across each stage of court proceedings.
All of these developments put more pressure on the struggling prison, probation and court services with the impact of the recent riots still to come.
Prosecutions and convictions
Prosecutions for indictable offences increased 17% in the latest year and were 4% higher than in the year ending March 2020 – increases were seen in theft offences (up 32%) and violence against the person (up 19%). In the year ending March 2024, there were 1.28 million defendants proceeded against at magistrates’ courts, an increase of 8% compared to the previous year. This included a 17% increase in prosecutions for indictable offences and a 6% increase for summary offences.
Increases were seen across all offence groups, including theft offences (up 32%), sexual offences (up 20% – continuing increases seen for the last five years) and violence against the person (up 19%).
Despite the increase seen in the latest year, total prosecutions still remain 3% lower than in the year ending March 2020.
Despite overall conviction volumes remaining below levels seen prior to COVID-19, it is extremely concerning that convictions for both violence against the person and sexual offences have increased compared to the year ending March 2020, up 18% and 43% respectively.
It is likely that things will get worse as trends in convictions for indictable offences tend to lag prosecutions due to the time taken between completing proceedings in the magistrates’ court (counted as prosecutions) and cases completing at Crown Court. As we know, Crown Court backlogs are currently at their worst ever level.
The infographic I have reproduced below, provides a snapshot of the numbers flowing through the CJS in 2023/24.
Remands in custody
In the year ending March 2024, there was a one percentage point increase in the proportion of defendants remanded in custody across each stage of court proceedings. This is problematic because the remand population was already at the highest level ever recorded.
In the year ending March 2024, 1.28 million defendants were directed to appear at magistrates’ courts by the police or other prosecuting authorities. The proportion of defendants held in custody prior to appearing at magistrates’ court increased slightly from 8% in the year ending March 2023 to 9% in the latest year.
At magistrates’ court, the proportion of defendants granted bail in the year ending March 2024 remained consistent at 13%. The proportion remanded in custody increased from 4% to 5% in the latest year, with the remaining 82% representing cases where a remand decision was not applicable or unknown.
At Crown Court the proportion of defendants remanded in custody increased to 52%, up from 51% in the previous year.
Remand continues to be over-used. Across all criminal courts, 26% of defendants that were sentenced after being remanded in custody received a non-custodial sentence. Of the defendants remanded in custody at magistrates’ courts in the year ending March 2024, 10% were sentenced to immediate custody and a further 72% were committed for trial or sentencing at Crown Court. Of those remanded in custody at Crown Court, 71% were sentenced to immediate custody.
Sentencing
The average custodial sentence length (ACSL) for indictable offences remained unchanged at 22.9 months. However, this overall rate masked significant increases in ACSL for fraud offences (up 2.8 months) and sexual offences (up 2.3 months).
There were 1.13 million offenders sentenced in the year ending March 2024, a 6% increase from the previous year, but this remains slightly below (3%) pre-COVID levels. Most (80%) offenders were sentenced to a fine, with summary motoring offences accounting for 73% of all fines issued.
The number of offenders sentenced to immediate custody increased on the previous year, up by 11% to 72,700, however this too remains 3% below pre-COVID levels.
Of those sentenced to immediate custody, 43% received a sentence of 12 months or more. In the year to March 2020 this proportion was 40% but accounted for only 1,300 fewer offenders.
The custody rate for indictable offences increased slightly to 33.1% in the latest year, up more than six percentage points from levels seen a decade ago (26.8%), this represents the highest custody rate seen across the time series.
However, the volume of custodial sentences issued for indictable offences remains slightly below pre-COVID levels, 64,500 in the latest year compared to 65,400 in year ending March 2020.
There have already been very long deterred sentences passed on those involved in the recent riots but whether there will be sufficient numbers to have any impact on the ACSL is currently impossible to know.
Conclusion
It is easy to see from these figures that the government is unlikely to weather the prison overcrowding crisis (and the problems besetting both probation and courts) without implementing a range of demand management measures.
