A strategic threat
A new (18 August 2025) report from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change and Crest Advisory sets out a new vision for tackling the evolving threat of serious and organised crime, including a proposal for a Five Eyes-style international alliance and a tech-driven offensive to dismantle criminal networks. The report starts by setting out the scale of threat posed by serious and organised crime (SOC).
Global trends show that between 2013 and 2022, detected human-trafficking victims increased by 292 per cent, the number of cyber-fraud cases rose by 142 per cent and drug seizures grew by 172 per cent. Firearms trafficking, though growing more gradually, has increased by 88 per cent since 2013, driven partly by weapons leaking from conflict zones.
Bigger than law-enforcement
The report argues that Serious and organised crime is not just escalating but becoming more quickly and more deeply embedded in the global economy than ever before. It argues that SOC is no longer just a law-enforcement challenge; it is a strategic threat that destabilises communities, distorts markets and undermines national security.
The main argument of the report is that transnational criminal networks are adapting at pace. They exploit geopolitical instability, emerging technologies and gaps between national systems. Their operations are decentralised, digitally enabled and remarkably resilient.
In contrast, global responses remain slow, siloed and reactive. Thre report says that the world – with the UK in a pivotal position – must act now, or the cost will be catastrophic.
Borderless
The report illustrates how Organised criminal groups (OCGs) are poly-criminal and borderless, relying on legitimate systems – logistics chains, financial networks, shell companies, digital platforms – to operate. They innovate faster than enforcement can respond. The boundaries between state, legal and criminal actors are blurring, with hostile states increasingly using OCGs as proxies for strategic and financial gain.
While the report notes that the UK has tried to respond, introducing new counter-terrorism-style powers, a dedicated sanctions regime for organised immigration crime and a stronger focus on dismantling gang business models. Nevertheless, these remain national measures in an international context. The report argues that without deeper, faster, more strategic global coordination, domestic reforms will always be outpaced.
An international approach
The Tony Blair Institute (TBI) argues that the diagnosis is clear: SOC thrives on fragmentation, loopholes and lagging cooperation, and the solution must match its scale and agility – not with incremental tweaks, but with a fundamental reset of the international approach.
TBI proposes an International Serious and Organised Crime Alliance – a core group of trusted nations and private-sector partners, operating with speed, trust and shared purpose.
This Alliance would:
Forge an agile partnership for intelligence, technology and operational coordination.
Target criminal networks at their source, dismantling infrastructure and enablers.
Leverage technology and public–private innovation to stay ahead of adversaries.
Its mission would be not simply to expand existing enforcement, but to deliver sustained disruption – pre-empting and dismantling the systems that make SOC possible.
The report proposes that the Alliance would concentrate on two overriding objectives:
First, disrupt criminal business models by raising the cost of illicit activity through coordinated sanctions, targeting enablers, choking logistics and reinvesting seized assets to strengthen vulnerable communities.
Second, deploy technology at pace and scale by creating a shared technology advantage through federated data infrastructure, pooled compute power and rapid innovation in detection and disruption tools.
Membership would require active data-sharing and a commitment to common operational standards, enabling real-time joint action. The report describes this as a “Five Eyes-style international alliance and a tech-driven offensive to dismantle criminal networks”. [The Five Eyes is a powerful intelligence alliance comprised of five English-speaking countries: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It’s a highly secretive intelligence sharing network, with origins in World War II cooperation between the US and UK. The alliance operates under the UKUSA Agreement, a treaty for joint cooperation in signals intelligence.]
The report concludes by arguing that, without bold, coordinated action, SOC will continue to erode resilience, institutional integrity and economic security worldwide.
