Third set of reoffending results
Last month (26 April 2018), the MoJ published the third set of final reoffending rates results, for the April to June 2016 quarterly offender cohort, separated out by Community Rehabilitation Company. They are based on a cohort of offenders being managed in the community under Payment by Results arrangements by CRCs following probation reforms. All offenders have been subject to the full one-year follow-up period and the additional six-month waiting period as detailed in the guide to proven reoffending statistics. Comparisons of performance between different CRCs and previous cohorts can now be made by comparing the adjusted binary rates. In this case, binary simply means whether an individual under probation supervision has been reconvicted or not. These results are adjusted to reflect the different caseload mixes of individual areas (and in comparison to the baseline of 2011) based on likelihood of reoffending as measures by the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS).
- There have been statistically significant reductions in the adjusted binary reoffending rate for 11 of the 21 CRCs in the April to June 2016 cohort when compared to the 2011 baseline reoffending rates.
- For one CRC, Warwickshire & West Mercia, there has been a statistically significant increase in the binary reoffending rate.
It is too soon for the MoJ to assess whether CRCs are meeting their frequency targets (whether those offenders who are reconvicted reoffend less often than the 2011 baseline group); these data will be available in January 2019.
The image above shows how many CRCs have been in each of the three payment zones (payment, non-payment and deduction) over each of the first three sets of results. Notable facts are that:
- Five CRCs have been in the non-payment region in all three final cohorts; six have been in the payment region in all three final cohorts.
- Warwickshire & West Mercia CRC are in the deduction region for a second time after the October to December 2015 cohort.
- South Yorkshire CRC were in the deduction region in October to December 2015 but moved.
A full breakdown of the latest reconviction figures by CRC area is shown below. Note that bullet points denote CRCs which are not receiving a payment for reducing reoffending and a triangle denonotes the CRC which is being penalised for having an increased reoffending rate.