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An analytical framework for payment by results (NAO 6)

Like many of us, the NAO is in a slightly awkward position in regards to payment by results. On the one hand, it is reluctant to recommend that any public programme adopts a PbR approach because there does not, as yet, exist an evidence base that suggests it is an effective commissioning approach.

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This is the sixth and final post in a series on the National Audit Office’s recent report: Outcome-based payment schemes: government’s use of payment by results. The report’s overall conclusion is that because of the lack of a clear evidence base, the PbR approach is currently laden with risk.

A payment by results toolkit

Alongside its recent report on payment by results, the National Audit Office published a “PbR analytical framework for decision-makers” – in effect a toolkit which summarises the contents of the report in a way that commissioners can work through when they are deciding whether to use a PbR approach.

The toolkit has five components:

  1. Claimed benefits of PbR.
  2. Structure of PbR schemes.
  3. Features of public services to which PbR is best suited.
  4. Risks and challenges of using PbR.
  5. Framework of questions for commissioners to consider at four key stages.

The full framework covers 8 pages in the report and sets out key questions for commissioners to consider at each of these stages. I have already covered these questions on the previous posts in this series relating to the selection, design, implementation and evaluation of PbR schemes.

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High level themes

However, the NAO recommends that before looking at these stages in detail, commissioners should consider them in principle first, looking at the full commissioning cycle before deciding whether a PbR approach is appropriate.

The NAO summarises this approach by means of a framework overview which functions as a flowchart and is reproduced below:

 

NAO PbR high level

 

Conclusion

Like many of us, the NAO is in a slightly awkward position in regards to payment by results. On the one hand, it is reluctant to recommend that any public programme adopts a PbR approach because there does not, as yet, exist an evidence base that suggests it is an effective commissioning approach.

On the other hand, the NAO acknowledges that over £15 billion of government contracts are let on a PbR approach and therefore wants to provide the best possible guidance to commissioners (and providers) utilising it.

Perhaps the biggest difference between this NAO PbR report and its predecessor (produced in 2012 by the Audit Commission) is the tone of the two documents. Whilst the original report was open-minded about the potential positives of commissioning public services on a payment by results basis, the current document is much more sceptical.

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Monitoring & evaluating payment by results (NAO 5)

The NAO makes a very strong recommendation not only that all government payment by results schemes should be evaluated but that these evaluations should be shared across government in order to develop a more robust evidence base for PbR; indicating whether and how this commissioning model should be utilised.

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Designing payment by results schemes (NAO 4)

The NAO cautions that in designing PbR schemes, commissioners need to get the balance between pure PbR and non PbR payments right. Where a scheme is financed by a Social Impact Bond, it may be possible – and indeed appropriate – to stipulate that 100% income is dependent on achieving the specified outcomes.

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Does payment by results work? (NAO 3)

To date, government has mainly used payment by results as a cost-cutting exercise with PbR focusing attention on the bottom line rather than on achieving more sustainable outcomes which benefit society and bring long term savings to the public purse.

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Whether to use payment by results? (NAO 2)

Are the NAO’s features a copper-bottomed guarantee of an effective PbR scheme? Or are you more in agreement with me that the attraction of PbR is the chance to move away from the straight-jacket of contemporary procurement and stimulate fresh approaches, under-written by the knowledge that if a provider fails, the commissioner doesn’t have to pay?

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Government co-ordination of payment by results (NAO 1)

PbR schemes are typically targeted at intractable, multi-faceted social problems with the hope that an outcome-focused approach will encourage innovation and more holistic responses. If government departments cannot even co-ordinate their commissioning around PbR, it will be very difficult for providers to design and deliver new solutions.

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Payment by Results not value for money?

PbR schemes now account for at least £15 billion of public spending in the UK including the Work Programme, the new private probation contracts and numerous homelessness and substance misuse schemes. Despite extensive negative media coverage, neither the Cabinet Office nor the Treasury currently monitors how PbR is operating across government.

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